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AARP poll shows Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Mike Rogers for Michigan Senate seat
The Apex Times

THE APEX TIMES

Politics/The Apex Times/Aug 20, 12:26 PM EDT

AARP poll shows Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Mike Rogers for Michigan Senate seat

A new AARP poll commissioned by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research finds Abdul El-Sayed leading former Rep. Mike Rogers 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, in a race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).

By The Apex Times Newsroom2 min readAI-assisted Apex article

A new poll released by AARP shows Democratic attorney Abdul El-Sayed holding a slight lead over Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, with both candidates competing for the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). The poll was released Thursday by AARP and conducted with likely voters, according to the report.

The poll found El-Sayed at 48 percent support and Rogers at 47 percent among likely voters, a margin that the report characterized as a narrow lead for El-Sayed. The result places the contest within one point of an even split as the candidates prepare for the general election.

The polling effort was commissioned by pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, according to the report. The companies’ involvement underscores that the AARP survey is part of a broader, targeted approach to measuring support among voters likely to participate, using a methodology tied to those organizations rather than a campaign-specific poll.

El-Sayed is seeking to succeed Peters, who has announced his retirement. Rogers, a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives, is also running for the open seat. With Peters stepping aside, the race is centered on which party will win control of the seat in Michigan’s 2026 Senate cycle.

AARP, which regularly conducts voter surveys tied to issues relevant to older Americans, released the poll as both candidates continue outreach and fundraising ahead of Election Day. The report did not include additional cross-tabs such as age subgroups, regional splits, or issue-based results in the summary, focusing instead on topline support among likely voters.

For federal elections, polling of “likely voters” can influence campaign strategy, messaging, and allocation of resources, particularly when the numbers are close. Still, the AARP topline result is not a statement of certification or final outcome, and voters’ preferences can change as campaigning continues and additional information emerges.

The next steps for the race will be additional polling, continued voter outreach from both campaigns, and the usual election timetable for Michigan’s general election. Voter attention is likely to remain on the narrowing margin reflected in the AARP survey as the candidates seek to distinguish their platforms with voters likely to cast ballots.

Why It Matters

  • With the seat open due to Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement, the contest will decide which party controls an additional Senate seat in the next Congress.
  • A near-even topline result among likely voters suggests the contest may hinge on turnout and persuasion rather than a clearly settled baseline.
  • The use of an AARP-commissioned likely-voter survey may influence how campaigns prioritize outreach to demographics AARP focuses on, even as it does not substitute for election results.
  • The poll’s topline numbers set a reference point for subsequent surveys as both campaigns continue to adjust messaging and resource allocation during the final stretch of the election timeline.

Sources

Key Facts

  • AARP released a new poll Thursday showing Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters.
  • The poll was commissioned by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, according to the report.
  • The contest is for the U.S. Senate seat in Michigan currently held by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.).
  • El-Sayed is the Democratic candidate, and Rogers is the Republican former U.S. representative running for the open seat.