DDHQ projects Nithya Raman over Spencer Pratt for Los Angeles mayoral runoff spot after late-returning mail ballots

Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman has been projected by Decision Desk HQ to advance to the Nov. 3 runoff for Los Angeles mayor, after additional vote totals moved her ahead of Spencer Pratt for the second-place position in the all-candidates June 2 primary. The shift was reflected in the latest update released Sunday afternoon, with Bass holding first place and Raman leading Pratt by a narrow margin as a substantial share of votes remained uncounted. NBC News reported that with 83.2% of the expected vote in, Bass had 250,871 votes (34.68%) and Raman had 27.12% of ballots counted, compared with Pratt’s 26.69%, a lead of 3,113 votes for Raman.

The mayoral primary is being counted under California rules that extend the timetable for results. AP reported that ballots are mailed and counted if they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive at an election office within seven days, and that Los Angeles County generally processes mail ballots roughly in the order they are received. Those mechanics can produce late swings as additional batches of mail ballots are tabulated over multiple days, particularly in races decided by small margins.

In explaining why the second-place race tightened, analysts pointed to patterns in mail-ballot timing among Democratic voters. AP reported that election data showed large numbers of Democrats held onto their mail ballots and returned them during the race’s final days, which helped explain why Bass and Raman were doing better than Pratt in the votes counted since Election Day. The Los Angeles Times also reported that analysts expected Raman to gain ground as left-of-center voters held onto mail-in ballots until the last minute, waiting to choose between Democratic gubernatorial candidates on the same statewide ballot, an explanation that aligns with the rationale attributed to Decision Desk HQ in The Hill’s coverage.

Raman’s rise occurred after she had trailed Pratt in early reporting following Election Day. AP said Bass had a 4.4-point lead over Pratt on election night, with Pratt ahead of Raman by 8.1 points at that time, and that Raman continued to gain as the tally was updated. NBC News said the registrar’s Sunday update included 122,807 ballots, bringing the total number of processed ballots in Los Angeles County to 1,897,653, and noted that more than 368,000 ballots were still outstanding at that stage. NBC News also reported that the county planned another results update Monday.

If the remaining votes ultimately confirm the projected top two, the runoff would set Bass, the Democratic incumbent, against Raman for the November general election. NBC News reported that Bass’s campaign issued a statement after Sunday’s drop referring to Raman as the general election opponent, while NBC said it had not projected which candidate would face Bass at the time of publication. California law requires the county to complete and certify results within 30 days of the election, meaning the official order could still change before certification.

While projections are designed to reflect the most likely outcome based on counting progress, they are not the final certified result. AP reported that the slow California count has prompted claims of fraud from some Republicans without providing evidence, and noted that President Donald Trump has suggested investigation and that the AP had not called a second slot in the related gubernatorial race. In Los Angeles, the practical impact of Sunday’s projection was to narrow the uncertainty around the second-place finisher as ballot counting continued under the state’s extended timeline for mail ballots.