Election analyst Larry Sabato says Democrats have a path to Texas Senate seat, citing Ken Paxton’s electoral weakness

A prominent election analyst said Texas Democrats may have a realistic chance to win a statewide Senate seat, arguing that the race could become more competitive because of the weakness of Republican candidate Ken Paxton, Texas’s attorney general. In an interview reported by The Hill, University of Virginia Center for Politics director Larry Sabato said Democrats could “flip” the seat given Paxton’s difficulties with voters and the political vulnerability those dynamics create.

Sabato’s comments centered on the matchup between Paxton and Texas state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee in the contest. The Hill reported that Sabato described a long-running pattern of Texans contacting him about politics, and said that, in this cycle, those calls were coming with a renewed sense that a statewide Democratic win could finally be possible in Texas.

The Hill reported that Sabato’s case for competitiveness depended less on general partisan momentum and more on candidate-specific factors. In that framing, Paxton’s electoral position is presented as the key variable that could lower historical barriers for Democrats trying to win statewide office in Texas.

Talarico’s candidacy is notable because it is tied to a bid to win a statewide Senate seat rather than a statehouse district contest. If Democrats were able to translate local support for a statewide candidate into a statewide win, it would represent a major departure from recent statewide results, according to the argument attributed to Sabato by The Hill.

The Hill did not identify additional official filings or court rulings in connection with Sabato’s comments. Instead, the report focused on the analyst’s assessment of Texas voter sentiment and how it could affect the statewide map for Democrats in the near term.

Any change in the competitiveness of a statewide Texas Senate race would likely turn on how Paxton’s standing evolves through the remaining phases of the campaign and on whether Talarico can convert the openings Sabato described into turnout and down-ballot support. The Hill’s report describes Sabato’s view as a potential, conditions-based pathway rather than a settled outcome.