Fox News poll shows Democrat Josh Turek leading GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa Senate race, within margin of error

Iowa’s 2026 U.S. Senate contest is shaping up as a tight matchup, according to a statewide poll released by Fox News. The survey found Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent, among 1,003 registered voters in Iowa.

The polling indicated the race is within the survey’s sampling margin of error. The poll, conducted June 23 to June 27, reported a margin of error of 3 percentage points for all respondents, which means the topline numbers are statistically close.

Fox News said Turek and Hinson are seeking to succeed Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who is retiring after two terms and currently chairs the Senate Small Business Committee. Ernst also serves on the upper chamber’s Agriculture, Armed Services, and Homeland Security panels, roles that help shape policy debates and committee priorities in Iowa-facing and national issues.

The survey also included a breakdown by voter motivation. Among respondents who said they were “extremely” motivated to vote in November, Fox News reported Turek held a larger advantage, 56 percent to 41 percent. The poll’s margin of error was described as 4 points for that highly motivated group.

Favorability and issue attention were part of the survey’s topline presentation. Fox News reported that Hinson’s net favorability was more positive than President Donald Trump’s, while still negative overall, citing figures of 42 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable for Hinson. For Turek, the poll reported 51 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable, producing a net positive rating. The Hill’s reporting on the same survey emphasized that Turek’s support and Hinson’s support appeared to diverge by demographic and political characteristics.

The Hill reported that the electorate’s underlying motivation may be tied to how each candidate performs with specific voter segments. It noted that among those extremely motivated, Turek’s advantage grows, and that the contest is therefore not only about the overall topline but also about who is most likely to turn out. The Hill also reported that the matchup is to fill Ernst’s seat and that Democrats have not won an Iowa Senate race in recent history, with the last Iowa Democratic Senate victory credited to former Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) in 2008.

Fox News framed the survey as a snapshot of the political environment ahead of November, including measures of Trump’s favorability and perceptions of the candidates. In the poll’s presentation, Trump’s net rating in Iowa was reported as unfavorable, while Turek was shown as more favorable with certain groups, such as younger voters and independents, and Hinson as more strongly supported by groups including white evangelical Christians, according to Fox News’ summary of subgroup results.

A Senate seat would not be decided by primary results in this contest, but by the general election in November. The next step for the candidates is to respond to the early polling picture and continue competing for turnout among registered voters ahead of final ballot decisions. The Fox News poll described the findings as based on the June 23 to June 27 survey window, so shifts in public opinion between then and Election Day could narrow or widen the margin.