Gary Black warns Tesla shares may stay “moribund” until Cybercabs can run without safety monitors at scale

Tesla-related optimism has met a blunt counterpoint from investor Gary Black, who said he expects Tesla shares to remain “moribund” until Elon Musk’s robotaxi effort reaches a specific operational milestone: unsupervised Cybercabs deployed at scale.

Black’s comments, reported by Yahoo Finance via a Stocktwits post, reflect skepticism that the current state of autonomy is sufficient to eliminate safety monitoring on public rides. He argued that investors are looking past what he characterized as limited evidence that Cybercabs can run “flawlessly” without safety monitors.

At the center of Black’s critique is the difference between demonstrated autonomy in constrained settings and autonomy that functions reliably without human or other oversight. In his view, Cybercabs should not be treated as a fully proven commercial product until the company can show that operating systems can handle real-world variability without safety interventions.

The remarks also suggest a broader market dynamic for Tesla, where expectations around autonomy and robotaxi commercialization have often been used to justify valuation support even when near-term deliveries and margins are under pressure. By tying the stock’s outlook to a particular autonomy threshold, Black is effectively reframing what qualifies as a catalyst.

Tesla’s publicly discussed robotaxi strategy has long been associated with the Cybercab branding and the promise of autonomous ride-hailing. However, the standard for “at scale” and the role of safety systems are not settled in the market narrative, and Black’s comments indicate that he believes the burden of proof has not yet been met.

Black’s argument, as described in the reported post, appears directed at those who have been buying or holding based on the prospect of an imminent autonomy step-change. Instead, he is advocating a more conservative framework, where investors should wait for autonomy outcomes rather than rely on anticipated engineering breakthroughs.

Still, the post leaves open details that would matter for calibration: what specific demonstrations Black considers sufficient, how he defines “unsupervised” in practical terms, and what evidence would change his stance. Without additional disclosure in the reported item, it is not possible to determine whether he expects near-term progress from internal testing, partnerships, or regulatory approvals.

Investors now will likely look for indicates tied to autonomy deployment. That includes any company updates that clarify whether Cybercabs can run without safety monitoring, whether the company is expanding operational geography, and whether any deployments show consistent, measurable performance rather than one-off demonstrations.