THE APEX TIMES
Great Hill Capital founder Tom Hayes says the “Berkshire era” of beating the S&P 500 is over, pointing to bets in PayPal and Intel
In a recent market interview, Tom Hayes argued that Berkshire Hathaway’s long run of market outperformance is unlikely to be repeated over the next decade, shifting attention to select individual stocks including Intel.
A prominent value investor is challenging the assumption that Berkshire Hathaway will remain a reliable long-term benchmark-beater. Tom Hayes, founder of Great Hill Capital, told Yahoo Finance that Berkshire’s era of sustained market outperformance is “done,” arguing it will not beat the S&P 500 over the next decade.
Hayes’ view is less about Berkshire’s business prospects than about the odds of repeat performance at scale. In the interview, he framed his position as a probabilistic bet, suggesting that even high-quality operators can struggle to outperform a broad index when returns compress and opportunity sets narrow.
Rather than look to a diversified conglomerate structure, Hayes indicated he is placing his next-cycle expectations on a barbell of individual stocks. He cited PayPal and Intel as examples of areas where he believes investors may find a better risk-reward setup than in traditional “buy-the-best” index comparisons.
Intel, whose shares trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker INTC, has been a central topic for stock pickers because the company sits at the intersection of data-center demand, foundry ambitions, and the competitive dynamics of semiconductors. In Hayes’ comments, Intel is discussed as a candidate for a more direct bet, not as a proxy for a wider market thesis.
The interview’s thrust is that investors should not assume Berkshire-style outperformance automatically continues. Hayes’ “it’s done” framing implies that the market’s composition, valuations, and the difficulty of identifying incremental advantages can make it harder for large, established portfolios to keep winning against the S&P 500.
Berkshire is typically analyzed as a collection of operating subsidiaries plus a large stock-investment portfolio. Hayes’ argument, as presented in the Yahoo Finance piece, targets the forward-looking expectation of outperformance rather than any single operational weakness at Berkshire’s businesses.
What remains unclear from the post is the specific rationale behind each individual pick, including the time horizon, valuation benchmarks, or near-term catalysts that Hayes may associate with Intel. The Yahoo Finance article also does not lay out detailed supporting numbers, such as expected margin or revenue trajectories, for Berkshire, PayPal, or Intel.
Why It Matters
- The comments add to a broader debate about whether long-duration value and diversified conglomerate structures can continue to outperform as index competition intensifies.
- By naming Intel alongside PayPal, Hayes is indicating that some investors see opportunity in individual turnaround or cycle-driven technology exposures rather than in conglomerate averaging.
- If more investors move from “own Berkshire” narratives to more selective stock picking, it could influence flows and sentiment in semiconductors and large-cap technology.
Sources
Key Facts
- Tom Hayes, founder of Great Hill Capital, told Yahoo Finance that Berkshire Hathaway cannot beat the S&P 500 over the next decade.
- Hayes characterized Berkshire’s period of market outperformance as “done.”
- In the interview, Hayes pointed to bets in PayPal and Intel as alternatives to Berkshire for his outlook.
- Intel is discussed as one of the specific stocks mentioned by Hayes, and it trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker INTC.
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