Texas U.S. Senate race: Poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by 3 points

Texas state Rep. James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, according to a new general-election poll released Tuesday by Texas Pulse.

The survey found that 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for Talarico if the election were held now, compared with 44 percent for Paxton. Another 9 percent were reported as undecided, according to the poll described by The Hill. The poll questioned 807 respondents.

The new polling comes after Paxton won the Republican primary runoff and became the GOP nominee for the seat, setting up the general-election contest against Talarico, the Democratic nominee.

Additional reporting on the same Texas Pulse polling described Talarico as leading in key subgroups, including among independent voters and Black voters, while Paxton showed stronger support among voters who do not have a college degree. The report also said voters were more divided along Latino and white lines.

Other Texas polling released earlier in the cycle showed Talarico with advantages over Paxton and also over incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in hypothetical matchups. Texas Public Radio reported in late April that Talarico led Paxton by 5 percentage points and led Cornyn by 3 percentage points in a separate poll of likely voters.

The Texas Pulse poll’s margin is within the range that can change as general-election campaigning continues and as voter turnout models are refined. In most U.S. House and Senate polling, undecided voters and how pollsters weight likely voters can have an outsized effect on small lead margins.

Talarico, a member of the Texas House, and Paxton, the state’s top law enforcement official, are the only two nominees currently in view for the November general election, and both parties are expected to focus messaging on federal issues while tying them to state records and policy priorities as the campaign proceeds.