MiDiA forecasts global recorded-music revenue will more than double by 2033, driven by streaming tied to social, fitness and gaming

Global recorded-music revenue is projected to more than double by 2033, according to a MiDiA report cited by Billboard, with growth expected to be fueled by both traditional formats like vinyl and expanding streaming-related activity tied to social platforms, fitness and gaming. The forecast comes as the music industry continues to rebalance revenue streams away from pure track consumption and toward broader audience engagement across digital ecosystems.

Vinyl sales are included among the contributors to the forecasted increase. MiDiA’s outlook, as summarized by Billboard, places vinyl as one of the categories that can keep delivering revenue even as the industry’s center of gravity remains streaming, subscriptions and other digital distribution channels.

At the same time, the report highlights a distinct streaming pathway tied to everyday use cases beyond listening. Billboard’s writeup describes streaming revenue linked to social media behavior, fitness-oriented content and gaming environments as part of the reason overall recorded-music revenue could accelerate by the early 2030s.

The MiDiA report also addresses how value may be captured beyond the recorded track itself. Billboard said the analysis projects that labels’ share of related areas such as branding, merchandise and touring could top $18 billion, pointing to a model in which labels participate more directly in physical goods and live-adjacent commerce.

While the report’s forward-looking numbers focus on industry economics, the underlying shift also affects artists, labels and service providers that have to plan for how music is packaged, marketed and monetized in different environments. For artists and rights-holders, these changes can influence contract discussions around royalties, marketing participation and how digital consumption translates into downstream opportunities.

For consumers, the report suggests that music discovery and music spending will likely continue to be shaped by platforms where audiences already spend time, such as social feeds, fitness apps and gaming experiences. Those settings can affect what listeners encounter and how frequently they engage with music-driven merchandise or events.

The next step for the industry will be translating MiDiA’s scenario into concrete planning and negotiations across distribution agreements and rights management. Service providers and labels may face increasing pressure to ensure that the revenue models for these streaming-linked categories remain measurable and auditable as the market moves toward a wider definition of “recorded music” value capture.